Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence
Through the development of a computational sociocultural model, we demonstrate the potential utility of a rapid-modeling approach for exploring the dynamics of nuclear deterrence. We review the past literature, showing how our model is influenced by both the domestic politics and constructivist paradigm models of nuclear deterrence. Our model development process incorporates expert elicitation into a model featuring cognitively limited, perception error-prone, belief holding, and knowledge diffusing actors. Results from both an intellective and specific scenario were generated through running the model across various strategies and courses of action (CoAs). Third-party experts validated the model's shortand long-term results and contribution to stakeholders exploring alternative CoAs. Work remains in validating this paper against empirical data sets and in automating the model construction process.
USMA Center/Institute Affiliation
Cyber Research Center
G. P. Morgan, M. J. Lanham, W. Frankenstein and K. M. Carley, "Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence," in IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 121-134, Sept. 2017. doi: 10.1109/TCSS.2017.2727071