Title

Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence

Author USMA Department

Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

USMA Center/Institute Affiliation

Cyber Research Center

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Summer 8-4-2017

Keywords

Data integration,Emergent phenomena, Governmental factors, Multiagent systems, Network theory (graphs), Predictive models, Computational modeling, Biological system modeling, Nuclear weapons, Predictive models, Stability analysis, Rapid-modeling approach, Computational sociocultural model, Nuclear deterrence

Abstract

Through the development of a computational sociocultural model, we demonstrate the potential utility of a rapid-modeling approach for exploring the dynamics of nuclear deterrence. We review the past literature, showing how our model is influenced by both the domestic politics and constructivist paradigm models of nuclear deterrence. Our model development process incorporates expert elicitation into a model featuring cognitively limited, perception error-prone, belief holding, and knowledge diffusing actors. Results from both an intellective and specific scenario were generated through running the model across various strategies and courses of action (CoAs). Third-party experts validated the model's shortand long-term results and contribution to stakeholders exploring alternative CoAs. Work remains in validating this paper against empirical data sets and in automating the model construction process.

First Page

121

Last Page

134

Volume

4

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